What it takes to join the EU: Conditionality, Sectoral Integration and the Transformation of Enlargement since 1991

EU enlargement conditionality has undergone a profound transformation since the Eastern enlargement of 2004 and 2007. This article argues that conditionality has evolved from an incentive-based instrument of comprehensive domestic transformation into a modular governance regime centred on risk containment, sectoral integration and geopolitical steering. While formally anchored in the Copenhagen criteria, contemporary conditionality operates through dense monitoring, reversible sequencing and differentiated access to funds, programmes and policy domains, without generating a credible entitlement to accession. Analysing the Western Balkans and the post-2022 enlargement cycle triggered by Russia’s war against Ukraine, the article demonstrates how weakened membership credibility and heightened political discretion undermine the transformative capacity of conditionality. It concludes that geopolitical enlargement reconfigures conditionality into a relational and distributive governance tool, raising structural tensions between strategic stabilisation and values-based integration.