COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC RELIABILITY OF EPC PROJECTS IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY

The article provides a comparative analysis of the current problem of determining the economic reliability of implementation of large oil and gas EPC projects by using different approaches to the organization of projects through a contract strategy. The author identifies two main types of project structures: the traditional Russian model with split of the responsibility between the general contractor and subcontractors and the international model with a single responsible qualified EPC contractor. Economic reliability refers to the likelihood of effective achievement of project target indicators, such as net present value (NPV). Using the apparatus of the mathematical theory of reliability, the author formalizes both approaches. The traditional EPC implementation model used in Russian practice has a general contractor with a set of highly specialized subcontractors. However, it demonstrates a high vulnerability to risks and failures at any part of its system. The international model considers the involvement of a large integrated EPC contractor with its own resources and competencies, which is modeled as a cold backup system capable of rapid recovery. Based on the constructed models, a comparison is carried out. Calculations prove that the economic reliability of the project, implemented according to an international model with a qualified EPC contractor, significantly and many times exceeds the reliability of the traditional approach, especially on long-term projects, and provides a higher probability of achieving the planned economic indicators of the project (timing, cost, quality and NPV). The author attributes this to fundamental differences in the scale, resource base, level of organizational integration of the project system participants and the ability to quickly replace the system elements that have lost their effectiveness. The results of the work demonstrate that the key factor in increasing economic reliability is the involvement of large EPC contractors with integrated competencies and significant resources. In this regard, it is necessary to purposefully study and adapt successful practices of international oil and gas companies and EPC contractors to increase efficiency, manageability and reduce risks when implementing large capital-intensive projects in the domestic oil and gas complex.