THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN 2026: FORECAST AGAINST BUDGETARY CONSTRAINTS, SANCTIONS PRESSURE, AND A PURPOSE TOWARD TECHNOLOGICAL SOVEREIGNTY

This article analyzes the key risks and challenges facing the Russian economy in 2026. It examines the combined impact of a number of negative factors: the exhaustion of emergency budget stimulus, the introduction of new fiscal measures (including a technology levy on electronics imports), increased sanctions pressure on the oil and gas sector, and the lack of a unified strategy among economic authorities. Particular attention is paid to the contradictions between the focus on technological sovereignty and the limited tools available to achieve it. It concludes that there is a high probability of a deterioration in the economic situation and increased uncertainty associated with the politicization of economic decisions, the transformation of property relations, and a narrowing of fiscal space.