DEVELOPMENT OF E-COMMERCE IN RUSSIA: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS

The article is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics of e-commerce development in Russia and the assessment of its medium-term prospects. The purpose of the study is to conduct a comprehensive statistical analysis of e-commerce development in Russia and to formulate a forecast of its future dynamics based on the identified trends. To achieve this goal, the following objectives were addressed: the dynamics of online retail turnover in 2015– 2025 were analyzed; the share of e-commerce in total retail trade was determined; regional features and the degree of territorial differentiation of the market were identified; the role of marketplaces as a key institutional element of digital trade was examined; the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was calculated and a forecast scenario was developed. The research methodology is based on official statistical data from Rosstat and the Bank of Russia, as well as industry analytical materials. The study applies time series analysis, comparative and structural analysis, calculation of relative indicators, the compound annual growth rate, and a linear trend forecasting model. The results demonstrate steady growth of e-commerce accompanied by an increasing share in total retail turnover. During the analyzed period, online sales increased more than 37 times, while the average annual growth rate amounted to approximately 43–44%. Regional differentiation in market development and the strengthening of the platform-based model through the expansion of marketplaces were identified. Forecast calculations indicate the preservation of positive dynamics with a gradual transition from exponential growth to more balanced development. The conclusions confirm that e-commerce is becoming a structural element of Russia’s trade system and one of the key drivers of retail sector transformation. Further development will depend on macroeconomic conditions, logistics infrastructure, and the level of digital integration across regions.