Secrets of creating an automotive company in Russia: financial modeling of a start-up enterprise

The objective of the study is to develop a theoretical and methodological approach to financial modeling for new automotive production projects in a contemporary Russian context, where government regulation and support measures play a key role. Methodology: The study is based on adapting classical financial modeling methods (DCF, break-even analysis, scenario analysis) to the specifics of a highly regulated sector of a transition economy. Government measures (subsidies, special investment contracts, protectionism) are integrated into the model not as exogenous factors, but as endogenous variables functionally linked to operational parameters (level of localization, production volume). Results: Using a simplified model of a new automotive production facility with an annual capacity of 300,000-400,000 units, the project’s marginal investment attractiveness is demonstrated (NPV +7.6 billion rubles, IRR 15.4%), provided the conditions for government support are strictly met. A sensitivity analysis revealed an extreme dependence of project viability on three key parameters: localization level (threshold ≈77%), gross margin (threshold ≈24%), and discount rate. Violation of any of these conditions renders the project unprofitable. Scientific novelty: This study substantively integrates the political economy context (non-market regulators) into the structure of a classical financial model. An approach has been developed that allows for quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of the project-state support system, rather than the project’s effectiveness in a market environment. Conclusions: Implementing the strategy for auto industry sovereignty requires the creation of new large manufacturers whose financial viability in the current environment is determined not by market advantages, but solely by adherence to a strict regulatory corridor and the volume of state support received. This shifts key risks from market to regulatory ones and requires the corresponding adaptation of investment analysis methods.