Trend analysis of ukrainian agricultural exports in the context of current challenges and threats

The article underscores the importance of foreign trade activity, particularly exports. An analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade turnover for 2010-2024 was conducted, which showed a clear impact of macroeconomic, political, security, and other factors on export and import volumes. It was found that the volume of agricultural exports decreased relative to the pre-war level, however, the share of exports of groups of agricultural sector goods in the overall export structure increased: “I. Live animals and livestock products” (from 2.0% in 2021 to 3.9% in 2024), “II. Plant products” (from 22.8% in 2021 to 32.4% in 2024), “III. Animal or plant fats and oils” (from 10.3% in 2021 to 13.8% in 2024), “VI. Finished food industry products” (from 5.6% in 2021 to 9.0% in 2024). The share of agricultural exports in Ukraine’s overall export structure increased from 40.7% in 2021 to 59.1% in 2024, underscoring the systemic importance of the agro-industrial complex to the national economy. In the difficult conditions of the war, the importance of agricultural exports increased against the background of an even greater reduction in production capacities and export potential of other sectors of the economy (mining, chemical, and machine-building industries). The types of products that provide the largest share of export revenue in terms of groups of agricultural sector goods are identified (in group I: “meat and meat preparations”, “milk and milk products; eggs; honey”; in group II: “cereals”, “oil seeds and fruits”; in group III: sunflower oil; in group VI: “remains and wastes of food industry”, “sugar and sugar confectionery”, “preparations of grains”). The main partner countries for Ukraine’s foreign trade cooperation are identified, and the roles of Poland and Turkey in the transit of Ukrainian grain are noted. The challenges and threats to the export of agricultural products of Ukraine in war conditions are systematized (temporary loss/occupation of agricultural lands, agricultural enterprises; destruction of logistics infrastructure, seaports; security risks of shipping; increase in production costs, transaction costs; price volatility of world agricultural markets, currency volatility; financing deficit and credit risks; trade restrictions; dependence on political agreements regarding export corridors, transit; weather and climate risks, environmental requirements, standards requirements). Keywords: foreign trade activity, export, export potential, agro-industrial complex, logistics, infrastructure, transit, risk, competitiveness, food security, economic security, macroeconomic stability.