Dynamic Effects Analysis of Global and Domestic Macroeconomics on the Trade Finance Transaction of PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk

The purpose of this study is to measure and analyze the influence of macroeconomic variables and ujrah on trade finance transactions in several economic sectors using VECM, IRF, and Variance Decomposition estimation. The results show that in the short term, macroeconomic variables and ujrah do not have a significant influence on the volume of trade finance transactions in the processing and trade economic sectors. However, in the long term, the variables of inflation, BI rate, SIBOR, and GDP JPY all have a significant influence on the volume of trade finance transactions. Then, the IRF analysis shows that trade finance transactions respond to shocks that occur in macroeconomic variables and ujrah in the first month with a diverse response and the response will weaken until it reaches an average equilibrium point in the thirteenth month for shocks caused by macroeconomic variables and the sixteenth month for shocks caused by the ujrah variable. Another result is that the contribution or role of macroeconomic variables and ujrah is still smaller than the contribution of the transaction itself in influencing the movement or fluctuation of trade finance transactions.