Assessing the Contributions of Smallholder Wheat Farming to Livelihood Outcomes in North West, Nigeria

This study investigates the contributions of smallholder wheat farming to rural livelihoods in Nigeria’s Sudan Savannah agroecological zone, focusing on food security, income generation, and poverty. The study was conducted across Kano, Jigawa, and Katsina States. We employ descriptive statistics, Endogenous Switching Probit Regression, and Instrumental Variable Quantile Treatment Effects to analyze data from 360 wheat farming households. Results reveal that wheat farming is profitable, and significantly enhances food security and income, particularly at moderate-to-high quantiles (30th–75th). However, 85% of households remain food insecure, with 71–85% facing mild-to-moderate access issues and 19–31% severe conditions, highlighting a disconnect between profitability and food access. Benefits skew toward wealthier farmers, with the most vulnerable (15th quantile) seeing limited gains. Wheat farming shows no significant impact on poverty at the 15th (0.0801, p > 0.05) and 30th (0.027, p > 0.05) quantiles, suggesting that the poorest farmers derive minimal benefits. However, significant positive effects emerge at the 45th (0.3491, p < 0.01), 60th (0.1909, p < 0.01), and 75th (0.6430, p < 0.01) quantiles, with the largest gains observed among wealthier households. These findings indicate that while wheat farming contributes to poverty reduction, its benefits are regressive, disproportionately favoring middle- and upper-income farmers. Our findings suggests improving credit access, irrigation, extension services, and market stability to ensure equitable and sustainable impacts. These findings underscore wheat farming’s potential to bolster livelihoods while emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to address systemic barriers and reduce Nigeria’s wheat import dependency.