A Systronomic Framework: The Systronomic Phenomenon of Hierarchical Stress Propagation and Modeling Civilizational Collapse

This paper proposes the Systronomic Framework, a novel conceptual model for analysing systemic socio-economic risk through a 15-layer hierarchical lens. Building upon principles of hierarchical complexity and systems theory, the framework integrates ecological, economic, social, and digital domains into a unified analytical structure. It introduces a prototype Sovereign Stability Index (SSI) and early-warning indices to operationalise the assessment of stress propagation across interdependent layers. The utility of the framework is explored through retrospective, illustrative case studies of historical crises, including the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2022 Sri Lankan collapse. These examples demonstrate how the model's logic can be applied to trace the multi-layered precursors of instability. A key conceptual finding is the proposed primacy of foundational ecological stress (Layer 0) in enabling wider systemic vulnerability. The study argues that conventional economic models suffer from "Kinetic Bias"—an overemphasis on short-term financial indicators at the expense of underlying structural vulnerabilities in ecological and social foundations. By formalising these interconnections, the Systronomic Framework offers a complementary perspective for systemic risk assessment. The paper concludes by discussing potential pathways for developing this theoretical approach into a practical tool for policymakers, highlighting the need for future empirical validation and interdisciplinary collaboration to test its core propositions.