An Index-Based Approach to Measurement of Seasonality in Tourism: Evidence From India

This article analyzes the nature of seasonality in tourism by developing a new index-based approach and examines the effect of seasonality on the general price level. The new concentration index measures the amplitude and stability of the seasonality pattern. The performance of the measure is validated by existing widely used measures. The validation is based on data from India, one of the world’s major tourist destinations. The new concentration index captures the nature and various dimensions of seasonality very well, offers an alternative measure of seasonality in the tourism literature, provides a framework for seasonality analysis at annual and subannual levels, and may be used in further analysis. Based on monthly data from January 2005 to June 2023, findings indicate that the amplitude of seasonality is not high and the pattern is quite stable over the years, except during COVID-19. The estimated autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable (ARMAX) model from the time series econometrics literature indicates that seasonality has a positive and significant impact on prices—that is, during peak seasons of tourism, prices, especially transport and recreation prices, move up significantly. This is an important finding for policymakers and market players alike.