Long-term Climatic Trends and their Risks on Water Supply in the Polokwane Municipality, Limpopo Province, South Africa

This study assessed temperature and rainfall trends, examining past and projected future climate conditions and their risks to the water supply in the Polokwane Municipality, Limpopo Province, South Africa. The seasonal behaviour of rainfall and temperature for the Polokwane Municipality was assessed using historical climate data (rainfall and temperature) acquired from the South African Weather Service (SAWS). The historical climatic data (1991-2020) were used to project future climatic variability and changes (2036-2100). The normality of rainfall and temperature data was quality-controlled using the Pearson correlation coefficient and a double mass curve. Climate data was captured in Microsoft Excel and then exported into the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS version 17) to perform analysis. The results showed a decline in rainfall in the Polokwane Municipality, accompanied by an increase in temperature. Temperature is projected to rise in the near and distant future, which could further exacerbate the negative effect on the spatial distribution of rainfall within the Polokwane Municipality. Climatic variabilities and changes will likely put more strain on the municipality's budget as it struggles to provide quality and sustainable services, such as water supply to its citizens.