Determinants of Electoral Success of Internally Displaced Persons Candidates under a Closed-List Proportional Representation System: Evidence from Bossaso, Puntland, Somalia

The paper focuses on the conditions that lead to the success of Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) candidates in the local council elections in the closed-list proportional representation of Bossaso, Somalia. It evaluates the role played by party politics, party ranks of candidates in the party lists, and voter turnout as far as the electoral performance of the IDP candidates is concerned. The explanatory mixed-method research design was used. The structured questionnaire was carried out on 382 IDP voters who participated in the study and were selected and sampled proportionately (22 camps out of 22 IDP camps in Bossaso). The qualitative data were collected in 10 major interviews with key informants, including IDP candidates, political party leaders, host community leaders, election commission officials, and civil society observers. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse quantitative data, and thematic analysis with the aid of NVivo was applied to analyse qualitative data. The findings indicate that there are consistent and prevailing trends in the data sources. Most of the respondents found deficiency in political party support to be a significant limitation to IDP candidates (62.3 per cent), and a structural obstacle (58.1 per cent) associated with electoral qualifications and position on party lists. Voting patterns also discriminated against IDP contenders, with 55.0 per cent of IDP voters reporting that they favoured candidates who belonged to the host community. The position in party lists became one of the most important parameters: 58.1% of the IDP candidates got positions in the low ranks (11th and below), whereas only 13.1% got top-rank positions (1–3). Qualitative results explain these outcomes by clan membership, elite domination of party nomination procedures, and attitudes towards IDPs as non-native residents, whereas inclusive nomination strategies by parties and civil society participation were found to be enabling. On the whole, the discussion reveals that the marginalisation of IDP candidates in Bossaso is mostly systematic in nature, and systematic electoral and party-specific changes are necessary to facilitate more inclusive localisation of governance in Puntland.