Structural Analysis of Regional Critical Imports and their Impact on Economic Dynamics

Objective: In the context of strengthening deglobalization and external pressure, this study develops methodological tools for identifying critically important imported product groups and constructs models that define the relationship between critical imports and regional economic growth. Methodology/Approach: Critical imports are identified through a three‑stage authentication process: (1) import volumes, (2) share in the value added of the region’s final product, and (3) country of origin. The resulting volume and cost parameters serve as the basis for spatial data analysis to determine the impact of critical imports on economic dynamics. Object: regions of the Volga Federal District (Russia). Subject: methodological approaches to assessing critical imports and their impact on the sustainability of regional economic dynamics. Originality/Relevance: The study offers a comprehensive regional‑level analysis of import dependence aimed at identifying the most critical groups of goods imported into regions; this allows assessment of the vulnerability of regional economic systems and the effects of import localization on sustainable development. Main Conclusion: The research identifies commodity groups that form the framework of critical imports for the Volga Federal District and implements economic‑mathematical models that quantify the influence of critically important imported goods on industrial growth. Theoretical/Methodological Contribution: A clear, criteria‑based procedure for detecting critical imports, combined with spatial data analysis and modeling, provides a replicable framework for assessing critical import dependence and its consequences for regional economic dynamics.