Continuity and Change in Nigeria’s Foreign Policy: A Multi-Era Analysis from Military Rule to Democratic Governance

Nigeria’s foreign policy has undergone substantial transformation since independence, shaped by alternating periods of military rule and democratic governance. While Afro-centrism and the pursuit of national interest have remained enduring principles, the orientation, tone, and effectiveness of Nigeria’s external engagements have shifted markedly across political eras. Drawing on twelve elite interviews and extensive documentary analysis from the Obasanjo, Babangida, Abacha, and post-1999 civilian governments, this paper examines the continuities and changes in foreign policy practice from the 1960s to the present democratic dispensation. The findings show that military administrations often pursued confrontational and personalised diplomacy, contributing to Nigeria’s international isolation during the Abacha period. Conversely, the return to democratic rule in 1999 catalysed a strategic re-engagement with the global community, enabling image repair, debt relief, and renewed leadership in African peacebuilding. Despite these shifts, the core commitment to Africa as the centrepiece of foreign policy has remained constant. Using Rational Choice Theory, the paper argues that leadership perceptions, domestic legitimacy, and cost–benefit calculations significantly shaped foreign policy behaviour across regimes. The study contributes to renewed debates on medium-power diplomacy in Africa and highlights how governance structures influence a state’s external posture. The paper concludes by recommending institutional strengthening and an economic-development–aligned foreign policy to enhance Nigeria’s global role.