Correlating Carbon Emissions with Extreme Weather Events: A Global Data Analysis

Rapid developments in industrialization have significantly induced carbon emissions and consequently aggravated climate change. Distinct correlations between increasing levels of carbon emissions and extreme weather events through anthropogenic activities can provide clear evidence of vulnerabilities. The present study provides a detailed global data analysis that quantitatively links historical human-induced carbon emissions to observed trends in extreme weather phenomena. By synthesizing datasets, a solid statistical and physical connection between emissions and their climatic consequences is established. The analysis reveals that since 1960, fossil fuel emissions have quadrupled, peaking at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹ in 2023. This surge has pushed atmospheric CO₂ concentrations beyond 429 ppm, 50% more than the pre-industrial era and a peak not seen in at least 800,000 years. This atmospheric forcing has led to unprecedented global temperatures, with 2024 recorded as 1.55 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. While planetary sinks absorb about half of all human-caused emissions, with the ocean sink taking in 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr⁻¹ at the expense of ocean acidification, the atmospheric growth rate of CO₂ remains alarmingly high. The definitive link to extreme weather is confirmed through attribution science, which shows that human-caused climate change made 74% of over 600 analyzed extreme events more probable or severe, with some events being "virtually impossible" otherwise. These results offer unequivocal, data-supported evidence that rising carbon emissions are a direct driver of the increased frequency and intensity of devastating heatwaves, floods, and droughts, highlighting the urgent need to accelerate the global shift to a net-zero economy.