MEASURING VULNERABILITY TO EDUCATIONAL INEQUALITY IN NIGERIA: AN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELLING AND SIMULATING VEIM FRAMEWORK

This paper introduces an epidemiological approach to measuring vulnerability to educational inequality in Nigeria as against the conventional income inequality gini. Using the Vulnerability to Educational Inequality Model (VEIM) proposed, we conceptualise education deprivation and classify epidemiological processes into three compartments: exposure, susceptibility and resilience (ESR). The VEIM integrates socioeconomic exposures, household and individual susceptibility, and systemic resilience factors to estimate the probability of a child failing to complete schooling. A synthetic micro-simulation was developed to illustrate the probabilistic distribution of educational vulnerability across Nigeria's six geopolitical zones. The simulated results show that vulnerability is highest where exposure and susceptibility overlap, particularly among children from poor households, rural areas, and northern regions. Resilience factors like parental education and school infrastructure mitigate risks. The framework provides a dynamic alternative to static inequality indices and suggests a predictive monitoring tool for policymakers. Based on the simulated results, we suggest that government should begin to collect statistical data on epidemiological variables associated with exposure, susceptibility and resilience, starting from the entry-point of enrollment. This will enhance real-life data analysis of student’s vulnerability to educational inequality.