Numerical Stress Analysis of Mounting Structures for Rooftop Solar Panels in Public Buildings

The structural reliability of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) panel mounting systems is critical for ensuring both safety and long-term functionality, especially in the context of developing countries like Nigeria. This study introduces a novel hybrid numerical framework that combines deterministic Finite Element Analysis (FEA) with probabilistic Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to evaluate the mechanical performance of rooftop PV systems installed on public buildings. The originality of this work lies in its integration of stochastic environmental variability and probabilistic failure prediction often overlooked in conventional design practice with a localized case study in Akure, Nigeria. The study examines 24 monocrystalline PV modules mounted on aluminium rail structures under varying environmental conditions such as wind load, temperature, and installation deviation. Results indicate a 21.44% probability of structural failure when the safety factor falls below 1.5, with wind speed and installation variability being the most influential parameters according to a Sobol-based sensitivity analysis. Experimental wind tunnel tests using strain gauges validate the simulation, with less than 10% deviation. The findings present a data-driven methodology to inform context-specific structural standards and safety margins for rooftop PV installations in sub-Saharan Africa and similar environments.