Ensemble modeling of Pinus cembroides Zucc. distribution under future CMIP6 climate scenarios in northern Mexico

This study employed ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) using the “biomod2” package and different General Circulation Models (GCMs) to assess the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Pinus cembroides in Mexico. Using presence and pseudo-absence data, along with bioclimatic variables from CHELSA v2.1, future habitat suitability was projected for the near future (2041-2060) and far future (2061-2080) under two CMIP6 scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). Our results predict that under future climate conditions, P. cembroides will likely undergo substantial range contractions, with losses of approximately 65%-85% of the current suitable habitat and no colonization of novel areas. Temperature-related predictors, particularly Bio8 (mean temperature of the wettest quarter) and Bio9 (mean temperature of the driest quarter) were identified as the primary drivers of the species’ distribution. These results suggest that under warming scenarios, P. cembroides will be confined to high elevation refugia, thereby increasing fragmentation and reducing its adaptive capacity. Overall, our findings provide a critical baseline for adaptive forest management strategies, such as assisted migration and the conservation of high elevation refugia, to mitigate the impacts of climate change on P. cembroides.