Assessing the impact of economic variables on Romania's real estate market evolution: risk, uncertainty, and investment dynamics

This study examines Romania’s real estate market (2003–2023), analyzing economic variables’ impact on housing demand and investment trends through PLS-SEM and regression analysis. It addresses housing affordability challenges, particularly for younger generations, highlighting rising prices, increasing costs, and limited mortgage access as key barriers to homeownership. Furthermore, it explores the socio-economic implications of affordability issues, emphasizing their links to inequality and financial vulnerability.This study examines the shift from consumption to investment in the market, emphasizing the rising demand for real estate. It explores the impact of the sharing economy, particularly short-term rental platforms like Airbnb, on housing prices and affordability. Analyzing economic variables within a supply-demand framework, it distinguishes between new and existing housing stock while incorporating a LCC perspective. The research identifies high-growth market segments, providing insights for policy formulation and investment optimization. It contributes to the debate on government interventions in housing, evaluating whether support should target supply or demand for affordability. Using an ECM, the study examines investment impacts, particularly capital gain speculations, on housing demand, assessing interest rate fluctuations and mortgage dynamics. By integrating historical and current housing prices, it improves market analysis and forecasting, clarifying economic variables’ influence on investment behaviour and stability. First published online 28 January 2026