Investigating the Role of Protostellar Variability with PRIMA Using Monte Carlo Simulations

Abstract Evidence suggests that protostellar outbursts likely play a critical role in the stellar mass assembly process, but the extent of this contribution is not well understood. Using the proposed observing program of PRIMA, a conceptual far-IR observatory (PRIMA GO Case #43 in A. Moullet et al 2023.), we examine the probe’s ability to unambiguously determine whether or not variable accretion events dominate the stellar mass assembly process ( M burst ≥ 0.5 M * ). To do this, we construct multiple protostellar ensembles using Herschel 70 μ m flux data and evolve them using a toy Monte Carlo simulation through steady-state and high-magnitude accretion events. Ensembles are observed at various epochs in the evolution process to conclude how many large-amplitude outbursts are observationally recoverable during the proposed program. Based on our synthetic observations and our simulation specifications, we determine that observing a protostellar ensemble of at least 2000 protostars using PRIMA’s proposed program is sufficient for determining the importance of protostellar outbursts in the stellar mass assembly process.