The Influence of Solar Source Information on Energy-dependent Solar Energetic Particle Flux and Timing Based on Solar Energetic Particle Events Observed over Four Solar Cycles

Abstract This study is based on proton flux data from ESA’s Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modeling database, analyzing solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed near Earth from 1976 to 2017. We have matched these events with corresponding solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to create a comprehensive list of SEP events spanning almost four solar cycles. Using this list, we conduct a statistical analysis of the flare–SEP correlation and SEP timing information. Our findings confirm that SEP events recorded at 1 au are more commonly associated with flares occurring in the western hemisphere of the Sun’s surface. Moreover, we develop an empirical model relating the SEP proton peak flux to the characteristics of flares and CMEs, which works particularly effectively for SEP events triggered by eastern flares. We also verify that flares with higher intensity are more likely to produce SEP events up to higher energies, such as those detected above 100 MeV. In this energy range, more than half of the SEP events are triggered by X-class flares. Finally, we introduce an empirical model that uses the flare longitude to predict the timing of the SEP peak flux, especially for intense flare events. These models can aid in mitigating particle radiation risks for space missions.