Uncertainty in Hadronic Diffuse γ -Ray Emission from the Temporal Stochasticity of Cosmic-Ray Sources

Abstract Diffuse γ -ray emission is a key probe of cosmic-ray (CR) distribution within the Galaxy. However, the discrepancies between observations and theoretical model expectations highlight the need for refined uncertainty estimates. In the literature, spatial and temporal variability of lepton flux has been discussed as an uncertainty in diffuse γ -ray estimation. In the present work, we demonstrate that variability in the high-energy CR hadron flux is an important, yet previously underappreciated, source of uncertainty in diffuse γ -ray estimates. To assess this effect, we perform fully three-dimensional, time-dependent GALPROP simulations of CR protons injected from discrete Galactic sources. Our results reveal that the uncertainty in the hadronic component of diffuse γ rays is nonnegligible and can be comparable to, or even exceed, current experimental uncertainties at very high energies. This finding challenges the conventional assumption that only leptonic fluctuations are relevant to diffuse γ -ray modeling.