Mapping the Orbital Landscape of Perturbing Planet Solutions for Single-planet Systems with TTVs

Abstract There are now thousands of single-planet systems observed to exhibit transit timing variations (TTVs), yet we largely lack any interpretation of the implied masses responsible for these perturbations. Even when assuming these TTVs are driven by perturbing planets, the solution space is notoriously multimodal with respect to the perturber’s orbital period, and there exists no standardized procedure to pinpoint these modes besides blind brute-force numerical efforts. Using N -body simulations with TTVFast and focusing on the dominant periodic signal in the TTVs, we chart out the landscape of these modes and provide analytic predictions for their locations and widths, providing the community with a map for the first time: the TTV circus tent diagram. We then introduce an approach for modeling single-planet TTVs in the low-eccentricity regime by splitting the orbital period space into a number of uniform prior bins over which there are none of these degeneracies. We show how one can define appropriate orbital period priors for the perturbing planet in order to sufficiently sample the complete parameter space. We demonstrate, analytically, how one can explain the numerical simulations using first-order near mean-motion resonance superperiods, the synodic period, and their aliases—the expected dominant TTV periods in the low-eccentricity regime. Using a Bayesian framework, we then present a method for determining the optimal solution between TTVs induced by a perturbing planet and TTVs induced by a moon.