Data and Code for: Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition

Much of the observed cross-country variation in fertility aligns with the predictions of classic theories of the fertility transition: countries with higher levels of human capital, higher GDP per capita, or lower child and maternal mortality rates tend to exhibit lower fertility. However, when examining changes within countries over the past 60 years, larger fertility declines are, on average, not associated with greater improvements in human capital, real per capita GDP, or survival rates. Notably, most of sub-Saharan Africa experienced smaller fertility declines than predicted by economic and health progress, whereas parts of Asia and Latin America saw larger-than-expected declines, and some East Asian countries even reached record-low fertility levels. To understand why economic and health progress alone fail to account for most of the observed changes in fertility, we focus on the role of family institutions, particularly marriage and inheritance customs.