Building Support for Climate Migrants in Divided Societies: Experimental Evidence from Nigeria's Farmer-Herder Conflict

This study investigates whether climate communication can reshape attitudes toward farmer-herder conflict in Nigeria. A pre-post survey experiment (n=735) in the southwest—a region targeted for resettlement of displaced northern pastoralists—randomly assigned participants to a documentary framing migration as a consequence of northern desertification or a control group. Results demonstrate a scalar paradox. The treatment successfully increased climate-based causal attributions, redistributed blame toward the government, and boosted support for national-level resettlement policies. However, it simultaneously reduced support for hosting ranches locally. Qualitative analysis indicates the intervention reframed local opposition from security concerns to issues of procedural fairness and territorial appropriation. The findings suggest that while climate narratives foster abstract solidarity, they make the costs of implementation more salient, thereby activating localized resistance. The study highlights a critical policy challenge: effective communication may widen the gap between national policy acceptance and local implementation.