Nonlinearities with de-anchored inflation expectations

Using a nonlinear VAR, we examine the asymmetric effects of shocks to long-run inflation expectations. Negative shocks, which temporarily lower long-run inflation expectations, have a stronger and more persistent impact on output, investment, and firm entry compared to positive shocks. We provide a novel theoretical explanation, demonstrating how these shocks influence the second-order components of the model, shaping firms' ``wait-and-see" behavior - particularly along both the intensive and extensive margins of the investment channel.