Geopolitical Conflict, Sanctions, and Olympic Performance: Evidence from Paris 2024

We examine how armed conflict and participation restrictions are associated with Olympic performance. Using Summer Games data from 2000–2021, we estimate a Tobit model of medal shares and construct counterfactual predictions for Paris 2024 based on pre-war dynamics. Countries directly affected by the Russia–Ukraine war underperformed relative to predicted outcomes, with an especially large deviation for Russia. At the sport level, former Soviet republics exceeded predictions in medal- intensive disciplines, consistent with competitive reallocation. The findings suggest that geopolitical shocks can shift not only participation but also the cross-country distribution of Olympic success.