From suitability to vulnerability: A GIS-based framework for assessing environmental sensitivity of mountain tourism landscapes in the Ukrainian Carpathians

The objective of the present study is to undertake a quantitative assessment of the spa-tial impact of tourism on natural complexes in the Carpathian region. This is achieved by employing geostatistical modelling methods. The present study deviates from con-ventional buffer methodologies insofar as it employs an integrated algorithm founded upon Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), thereby amalgamating multivariate analysis with detailed land use classification (LULC). In the analysis, each of the seven factors ̶ hydro-graphic network, relief, transport accessibility, hotels, tourist routes, land use types and nature conservation areas ̶ is standardised on a scale of 1–10 and synthesised into a single model of the vulnerability of natural landscapes to tourist pressure. The spatial integration of the factors demonstrates that areas exhibiting high and very high vul-nerability encompassed a total area of more than 310 km², constituting approximately 34% of the total area under consideration. These areas are predominantly concentrated within mountain valleys and along major transport axes. The findings demonstrate the substantial analytical superiority of KDE in comparison to buffer models, owing to its capacity to accommodate continuous impact gradients and its strong alignment with actual urbanisation patterns. The proposed approach can be applied to spatial planning for sustainable tourism and environmental monitoring in mountain regions.