Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security in North Africa
Abstract
This chapter aims to evaluate the effects of climate change on food security in North Africa using an ARDL-PMG model and future climate projections from CMIP6. The results indicate that in the long term, agricultural capital, labor, and climatic conditions (De Martonne index) exert a positive influence on agricultural production. In the short term, the effects vary by country. The integration of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) allows for the estimation of future agricultural losses that could reach –4.1% under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, with more pronounced impacts in Morocco and Tunisia. The study highlights the increasing vulnerabilities and emphasizes the need for adapted agricultural and climate policies to ensure regional food security.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Climate change impacts on agriculture
Agricultural risk and resilience
Food Security and Health in Diverse Populations
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in the MENA Region
- Publisher
- IGI Global Scientific Publishing
- Pages
- 85–120
- Publication date
- 7 January 2026
- Language
- NG
- Document type
- Book chapter