Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in the North African Region

This chapter aims to examine the impacts of climate change on agriculture in North Africa using an integrated Ricardian-Production Function approach. Focusing on 5 countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, the analysis combines panel data (1980-2020) with climate projections under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0), to quantify effects on agricultural value added. The model incorporates key variables such as temperature, precipitation, capital investment, labor, and irrigated area. The main findings reveal that: while optimistic scenarios (SSP1-2.6) show manageable declines of 15-20% in inter-annual rate of change of agricultural added value, pessimistic pathways (SSP3-7.0) precipitate catastrophic losses exceeding 130% in vulnerable countries. Egypt's high adaptive capacity can mitigate up to 90% of potential losses, while Libya and Algeria remain highly vulnerable. Precipitation levels emerge as the most critical factor, although the cumulative effect of rising temperatures could become significant under pessimistic scenarios.