Historical Claims to Maritime Tensions

This chapter delves into the South China Sea (SCS) or West Philippine Sea (WPS) conflict, focusing on China's Nine-Dash Line and its regional, legal, and maritime governance implications. It traces Chinese maritime claims historically, exploring the evolution from ancient navigation to modern revisions by the Kuomintang and People's Republic of China. The analysis scrutinizes the legal and political foundations of the disputed line, particularly under UNCLOS, emphasizing the 2016 arbitral ruling's significance and constraints. Claimant states like the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, and external factors such as the United States and ASEAN are examined. Future scenarios, including military escalation, diplomatic talks, or status quo maintenance, are discussed. The chapter advocates for utilizing international law, diplomacy, shared zones, and confidence-building measures to alleviate tensions, suggesting that sustained stability hinges on a multifaceted approach encompassing legal norms, institutional robustness, strategic equilibrium, and economic interdependence.