Urban Spatial Expansion and Coordinated Development of Ecological Environment

With new-type urbanization, urban expansion in 35 major Chinese cities increasingly encroaches on ecological spaces. Integrating Landsat-8/Sentinel-2 data, statistics, and emission inventories, this study constructs a “development–ecology” coupling framework. Entropy-AHP weighting balances NDVI, NDBI, LST, and PM2.5, while multi-scale spatial regression examines impacts of precipitation, temperature, and policy as exogenous shocks. CA-Markov and random forest models simulate baseline, compact, and ecology-priority scenarios. Results show strong bidirectional feedback: compact, ecology-focused growth improves coordination, while sprawl worsens ecological stress. Climate and policy combinations critically shape coupling trajectories. Findings support integrated planning, ecological redline management, and smart governance, offering a basis for real-time monitoring and sustainable urban development.