Academic expectations and university enrolment of migrant-origin students in Italy: Evidence by migrant generation and origin group

BACKGROUNDAs second generation grow up in Italy, understanding how academic expectations translate into actual university enrolment is crucial for assessing future integration prospects, labour market success, and social mobility. OBJECTIVEAdopting a longitudinal perspective, this study investigates the match or mismatch between students' academic expectations and subsequent university enrolment among students in their final year of Italian high school in 2015, focusing on differences by migrant generation and origin group. METHODSThe analysis uses a unique dataset linking the 2015 Integration of the Second Generation survey conducted by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) to university enrolment records for the academic years 2015/2016, 2016/2017, and 2017/2018 from the Ministry of University and Research.Multinomial logistic regression models analyse the association between students' expectations-enrolment outcomes and migrant generation and origin group. RESULTSResults show that (1) among students with similarly positive academic expectations, migrant-origin students are less likely than their Italian classmates to enrol in university;(2) differences emerge by migrant generation; and (3) patterns across migrant groups are largely similar, with only limited exceptions.