Settlement intentions of Ukrainian refugees in Germany: Adhering to social status back home or restarting again abroad?

BACKGROUNDThe choice between permanent settlement and temporary migration has garnered increased attention in international migration studies, yet the decisions of refugees remain underexplored. OBJECTIVEBuilding on the existing literature on return migration among voluntary migrants, this paper investigates the importance of socio-psychological and economic-skills contexts in refugees' home and host countries for their settlement intentions. METHODSWe use the register-based probability sample of the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP survey on Ukrainian refugees in Germany following the Russian invasion of February 2022.We employ linear probability regression models and sheaf coefficient analyses. RESULTSSimilar to voluntary migrants, socio-psychological context shapes the settlement decisions of forced migrants.However, Ukrainian refugees who intend to settle are more economically disadvantaged than their counterparts, exhibiting differences in education, financial status, and welfare dependency.Notably, the highly educated and previously economically successful express a strong desire to return due to significant losses incurred as a result of the conflict.