The power of inclusive labor force participation for mitigating population aging: Closing gaps at the intersection between race/ethnicity and gender in the United States

BACKGROUNDThe US labor force and economic dependency ratios are projected to change significantly through 2060, driven by demographic shifts and persistent inequalities across race, ethnicity, and gender.The United States has lower participation rates than other industrialized countries and large participation gaps between population groups. METHODSWe use a dynamic microsimulation model, incorporating US population projections, to project labor force participation and economic dependency ratios.We assess multiple scenarios, simulating the effects of reducing inequalities in education and health and equalizing participation across demographic groups. RESULTSBaseline projections indicate a labor force increase of approximately 27 million people by 2060, driven primarily by population growth.Reducing health and educational disparities could increase the baseline labor force projection by about 10%, adding 2.6 million people.The projected effects of closing gender and racial/ethnic participation gaps are substantial: equalizing participation rates between demographic groups could add up to 14.3 million people to the labor force.