Essays on International Trade Beyond Markets. Evidence on Sanctions, Contracting Institutions and the Role of Cultural Affinity in International Trade

This dissertation studies how non-market forces shape international trade dynamics. It combines empirical analyses, novel datasets and theoretical modeling to analyze how geopolitical shocks, institutional quality, and cultural ties affect trade relationships. The first chapter examines the impact of the 2014 EU sanctions against Russia on German exporters, documenting declines in exports and firm performance concentrated among highly exposed firms. The second chapter develops and tests a dynamic model of export quality upgrading under weak contract enforcement, showing that exporters enter weak-institution markets with higher initial quality and exhibit steeper long-run quality growth. The third chapter uses geolocated social media data from the 2018 FIFA World Cup to measure cultural affinity and shows that cultural attention generates persistent effects on bilateral trade. Together, the findings show that political, institutional, and cultural environments are central determinants of how trade relationships form, evolve, and respond to shocks.