Application of Monte Carlo Simulation to the Safety Risk Management of Runway Excursions at a Level 1 Airport in Southeast Asia

Runway excursions are the most common type of aircraft disaster globally, posing a considerable operational safety risk. At the case study airport, the lack of suitable runway safety areas considerably increases the risks of runway excursion events, especially given existing infrastructure constraints that do not meet industry safety standards. The current use of qualitative risk assessment methodologies lacks the analytical depth needed to accurately predict and manage runway excursion hazards. The purpose of this study is to apply a quantitative Monte Carlo model to analyze and improve the safety risk level of runway excursion incidents at the airport under consideration. This study is one of the first projects that propose the method to quantify runway excursion risk for an airport in Southeast Asia. The methodology includes both qualitative and quantitative approaches. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the likelihood of veer-off and overrun accidents based on current airport infrastructure and operating procedures. These findings are supplemented with qualitative severity judgments to determine the overall risk level. The data indicates that the existing risk level of runway excursions, including veer-off and overrun, is untenable. A collection of procedural and physical mitigations was devised, evaluated, and simulated using the Monte Carlo model, with input parameters varied to reflect each mitigation technique. To ensure practicality, the mitigating strategies were examined in terms of economic feasibility. The Monte Carlo simulation demonstrated that the proposed measures reduced the risk of runway excursions. The current state risk level was within the intolerable region; however, following assessment of mitigations, the residual risk was reduced to the tolerable level, indicating an improvement in safety performance.