Spatial and Temporal Variations of Density Altitude at selected Airports under Changing Climate Scenarios in Nigeria

Aviation operations are highly sensitive to atmospheric conditions, with rising global temperatures increasingly affecting air density and aircraft performance. Hence, the objective of this paper was to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of Density Altitude (DA) across Abuja, Enugu, Kano, Lagos, and Port Harcourt airports at baseline (1981–2010), mid-century (2041–2070), and end-century (2071–2100) periods under changing climate scenario in Nigeria using the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Results reveal a consistent increase in DA across all airports, with higher values observed in the northern inland regions and moderate increases in the coastal areas. The most significant changes occur during the dry and pre-monsoon months, with projected DA increases of 5–10% under SSP2-4.5 and 15–20% under SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. Elevated DA conditions are expected to reduce engine thrust, lift efficiency, and payload capacity, leading to longer takeoff distances and increased fuel consumption. These findings emphasize the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies in Nigeria’s aviation sector, including improved meteorological monitoring, infrastructure redesign, and operational adjustments to ensure flight safety and efficiency under a warming atmosphere.