Yemen (2015–2023) and Palestine (2000–2025)

This chapter presents a synopsis of the Saudi-led expeditionary campaign against the Houthi insurgency in Yemen since 2015 and the Israeli campaigns against Palestinians during the Second Intifada and the Gaza War. By doing so, the chapter aims to corroborate the argument that the theoretical framework of this book can account not only for historical cases but for contemporary expeditionary campaigns too. It shows that the Saudi-led campaign developed under Scenario 1 conditions; therefore, unfavourable perceptions of external threats propelled a high level of civilian targeting, while the absence of support for would-be dominant groups contributed to removing incentives for an extreme level of indiscriminate violence. The Israeli campaign during the Second Intifada evolved from Scenario 3 to get closer to Scenario 2 conditions, while the Gaza War firmly developed under Scenario 3 circumstances. This chapter finds preliminary evidence confirming the arguments of the book’s theoretical framework.