Balancing Acts in the US–China–Taiwan Triangular Relationship

This chapter explores the evolution of triangular relations among the United States, China, and Taiwan, highlighting how strategic interests and domestic politics have shaped the relationship. It argues that US policy in the Taiwan Strait has been consistent since the 1950s, centered on deterrence—intended to prevent both Chinese military action and provocation from Taiwan. While Taiwan&s;s leadership under Chiang Kai-shek once aimed to reclaim the mainland, more recent tensions have centered on concern that Taiwan might unilaterally declare independence following its democratic transition. Taiwan&s;s democratization contributed to the development of a distinct political identity, further complicating cross-Strait relations. Under Xi Jinping, Chinese leadership has increasingly tied the goal of unification to domestic nationalism and regime legitimacy—raising the political stakes of the Taiwan question. The chapter concludes that the Taiwan Strait remains a space where great-power strategy, democratic values, and domestic pressures intersect in increasingly volatile and unpredictable ways. This analysis sets the stage for subsequent chapters that examine how different international actors have responded to rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait.