Russia's war on Ukraine and Chinese and Taiwanese relations in the 21st century

Has the Kremlin’s military campaign against Ukraine emboldened China? Will Taiwan suffer a similar fate? What lessons can Beijing learn from Moscow’s decision to invade Ukraine? This chapter argues that there is a low probability that China will attack Taiwan and contends that while some ‘lessons’ can indeed be learned, none of them are particularly useful. Importantly, it contrasts the meaningful historical, economic, social, cultural, and military differences between Ukraine and Taiwan and highlights many of the crucial domestic challenges confronting China. Slowing economic growth, high youth unemployment, corruption, lingering suspicion and tension with the West, and so on, have made it difficult for China to focus, exclusively, on reunification. Ultimately, this chapter asserts that Taiwan and Ukraine represent two fundamentally different cases and that Xi Jinping and his closest advisors are too preoccupied with mainline Chinese problems to follow through on their persistent ‘One China’ rhetoric. It concludes by observing that, far from being inspirational, the invasion of Ukraine represents more of a cautionary tale for Xi and the Chinese Communist Party’s senior apparatchiks and foreign policy hawks.