The big game in Southeast Europe

Southeast Europe (SEE) has been a region of sustained geopolitical contestation between the West and Russia. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union – particularly after 2000 – the Kremlin has actively sought to reassert its influence in the region. The strategic importance of SEE stems from its geographic proximity to Russia’s borders and its position within the so-called near abroad, especially in light of NATO and EU enlargement. Viewing Western influence as a strategic threat, Russia has adopted a selective approach, focusing on two specific states and one ethnic nation, to counter these developments. It has leveraged political and economic instruments, as well as cultural and historical ties, to resist Western encroachment. In this context, SEE has come to function as a geopolitical buffer for Russia, comparable to Eastern Europe during the Soviet era, albeit without direct territorial control. In contrast, Western countries and institutions have pursued region-wide initiatives designed to promote integration and stability. These efforts include the establishment of the Energy Community and the continued expansion of both the EU and NATO. Such initiatives aim to mitigate Russian influence and prevent regional fragmentation by integrating SEE into a unified framework based on Western-defined norms and rules.