It is possible because I have already seen it – how sub-national coalitions affect voters' expectations about government compositions on the national level

In times of increasing political fragmentation and the rise of populist parties’ seat shares, there is a pressing need to reconsider patterns of coalition formation. Previous studies show that party familiarity plays a crucial role in coalition dynamics. In multilevel systems such as Germany, the sub-national level adds another layer to those dynamics. Here, sub-national coalitions are of significant importance, often serving as a “laboratory” for considerations about coalition building on the national level. Drawing on GLES panel data from 2016 to 2024, our research explores the relationship between voters’ first encounters with a specific coalition at the sub-national level and their subsequent expectations for such coalition formation at the national level. Sub-national political experiences could significantly influence voters’ receptiveness and expectations for emerging coalition configurations on the national stage. These insights have profound implications for party competition, coalition theory, and voting behaviour, emphasising the importance of regional alliances as a precursor to shaping national coalition narratives and voter perceptions.