Towards 2030

This chapter provides an empirical assessment of the mechanisms of digital transformation in the European Union between 2015 and 2023, and develops scenarios for its future trajectories up to 2030. The analysis is anchored in the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), which captures the multifaceted dynamics of digitalisation across EU member states. To explore these processes, the study combines a diverse set of quantitative and structural approaches, ranging from panel and dynamic models to structural modelling and trajectory-based methods. The results show that human capital in the ICT sector remains the principal driver of digital development, while digitalisation processes are characterised by strong inertia. Four distinct types of development trajectories are identified, differentiating the pace and direction of convergence across countries. Forward-looking scenarios suggest that while frontrunners in digitalisation will experience stabilisation due to a ceiling effect, other groups of countries will follow more heterogeneous catch-up pathways. The chapter’s main contribution lies in integrating dynamic and trajectory-based perspectives with bounded-scale modelling, offering a comprehensive framework for interpreting digital development. The findings carry clear policy relevance: they underline the priority of investing in digital skills and the importance of targeted support for specific clusters of countries, ensuring that Europe’s digital transformation is both inclusive and sustainable.