Project Risk and the Illusion of Control

Project management’s claim to success as a profession is rooted in its ability to control the processes of the project. It has been forced into this situation through its commitment to the scientific paradigm. In this, project management has made a category error and left itself vulnerable to complexities no scientific experiment could ever hope to encompass. It is our fear of uncertainty that leads us to collect data from every nook and cranny we can find, in the hope that buried in it somewhere is ‘the answer’ leading us to the true path. What we confront instead is an inexorable universe, driven by entropy, that cares nothing for our plans. All we can do instead is confront our beliefs about the future, accept them as beliefs , and update them as we go. Rather than try and anticipate the unknowable, we need to use what we do know to make ourselves more resilient to the Black Swans. That is the only path of reason in the face of the Fortuna.