Evolution and impact of the terrorist crisis in Africa

The second chapter examines the evolution of terrorist violence in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin from 2012 to 2024. It discusses the increase in incidents and fatalities, the impact on civilian populations, and the humanitarian crisis resulting from forced displacement and disrupted social services. The chapter also analyzes the economic impact of terrorism, including the decline in foreign direct investment and the challenges to economic growth and democracy. This chapter compares the trends observed in West Africa (Sahel and Lake Chad Basin) with those observed in Northern, Eastern, Southern, and Central Africa. Though Islamist militant groups had been active before the Arab Spring in Northern and Eastern Africa, the available data display a downward trend in their activities in these regions. Terrorism in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin has driven increased military spending, highlighting African countries’ reliance on foreign-manufactured weapons and underscoring the need for sovereignty through food security and self-defense. Political instability, exacerbated by military coups, indiscriminate counter-terrorism measures, and the erosion of civil liberties, has weakened democracy, the rule of law, and human rights in the region, as shown by assessments from Freedom House and the Fund for Peace. Despite projections of economic growth in countries like Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria due to resource extraction, instability persists due to ongoing terrorism, military-led governance, and regional disruptions, such as withdrawals from ECOWAS. Amid these challenges, the resilience of local populations is emerging as a beacon of hope, with communities organizing self-defense efforts, embracing grassroots entrepreneurship, and fostering innovative self-reliance models that could shape the future of Sahelian societies and inspire broader African development.