Perception

This chapter explores the pivotal role of perception in shaping divergent interpretations of Russia&s;s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It opens with a central question: why did most Western intelligence agencies fail to anticipate the attack, despite explicit warnings from the United States and the United Kingdom? The chapter argues that European skepticism stemmed not from a lack of information but from differing perceptions and deeply ingrained, subjective interpretations influenced by prior beliefs and assumptions about Russia&s;s intentions and capabilities. To unpack this phenomenon, the chapter first outlines the philosophical and epistemological foundations of perception, underscoring its dual character as both objective and subjective. It then examines key debates in international relations surrounding (mis)perception, information processing, and the methodological challenges of studying perception empirically. The final section applies this analytical lens to the Russo-Ukrainian War, focusing on two critical misperceptions: the belief that Russia would not invade, and the assumption that Russia would swiftly defeat Ukraine. In doing so, the chapter reveals how intelligence assessments are filtered through subjective lenses that shape political and strategic responses in moments of crisis.