Do Climate Variables Influence Fish Production in Top Fishery Economies? Evidence from the ARDL Approach

Climate change poses significant challenges to food security worldwide, particularly in the fisheries sector, where fish production is highly sensitive to climatic variables. This study investigates the long- and short-run impacts of climate change on fish production in four major fish-producing countries, China, India, Vietnam, and Bangladesh, using annual time-series data from 1990 to 2020. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed to examine long-run equilibrium relationships between climate factors (precipitation, minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures, and CO2 emissions) and total fish production, as well as adjustments to short-run deviations. The findings revealed distinct patterns across countries: CO2 emissions positively influenced long-term fish production in China, India, and Bangladesh, whereas precipitation boosted fish production in China and Bangladesh. In contrast, Vietnam showed no long-run equilibrium, indicating higher sensitivity to short-term climatic fluctuations. In the short run, CO2 emissions significantly enhanced fish production in Bangladesh, with regional temperature effects varying. The minimum temperature positively impacted long-term fish production in China but negatively affected it in Bangladesh. In Vietnam, an increase in the maximum temperature enhanced short-run production, whereas a decrease in the minimum temperature reduced it. This study examined the critical role of CO2 emissions, precipitation, and temperature in influencing fish production, offering key insights for policymakers to develop adaptive strategies for sustainable fish production amid climate change.