Modelagem tecnológica e governança da bioeconomia do pirarucu Arapaima gigas

This study analyzes the productive, technological, and governance structure of the Pirarucu (Arapaima gigas) bioeconomy in Brazil, using data science tools to understand the flows of production, value, and risk. Through multivariate analyses (PCA and K-Means) and stochastic modeling (Random Forest), it was identified that system variance is strongly determined by production scale, reflecting the biophysical dominance of biomass over price and value-added factors. The results reveal the existence of two distinct regimes: sustainable management, highly dependent on natural capital and subject to high operational risk; and intensive aquaculture, characterized by greater technological stability but vulnerable to input costs and environmental impacts. The predictive model achieved an R² = 0.61, indicating moderate predictability and revealing that a significant portion of economic inefficiency stems from governance failures and the lack of environmental compensation mechanisms. It is concluded that technological advancement and the valorization of natural capital are complementary and essential for an efficient, equitable, and sustainable Amazonian bioeconomy.