Macroeconomic Nexus and Inequality: An Analysis of the Impact of International Trade and Demographic Factors on Income Distribution in Six ASEAN Countries

This study aims to analyze the relationship between macroeconomic variables and income inequality in six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Cambodia) over the period 2007–2023. A quantitative approach was employed using static panel data regression analysis with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) to examine the effects of exports, imports, inflation, and population on income inequality, as measured by the Gini Index. The results indicate that, simultaneously, the overall model is significant (F-statistic); however, partially based on individual t-statistics, only the population variable shows a significant and negative effect. This finding suggests that population growth tends to reduce income inequality in the ASEAN region, likely driven by the demographic dividend, emphasizing the crucial role of demographic factors in fostering equitable economic development. Meanwhile, exports, imports, and inflation have no significant effects, implying that there is no statistically significant evidence that trade-driven growth affects income inequality in this model. Overall, the study highlights the importance of demographic-based economic policies focusing on equitable access to education, employment, and welfare to promote sustainable and inclusive economic growth across ASEAN countries. Keywords: Income Inequality, Exports, Imports, Inflation, Population, ASEAN JEL: A11, A13